The State of the Union
Last week in his State of the Union address, President Obama talked about technology developments and staked out a bold position on America’s Energy Future:
“Now, clean energy breakthroughs will only translate into clean energy jobs if businesses know there will be a market for what they’re selling. So tonight, I challenge you to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources. Some folks want wind and solar. Others want nuclear, clean coal and natural gas. To meet this goal, we will need them all …”
It’s a great notion. I want to believe it. There are all manner of amazing technologies being developed. And it is true that technological innovation can come blindingly fast and result in amazing changes. (For example, 25 years ago there was no world wide web and barely an internet. Who know what we’ll have in 2035, 24 years from now.) Here’s the math illustrating the daunting road ahead:
2011 Electric Demand: 940 gigaWatts (gW) 2035 Projected Demand: 1200 gW
2011 “Clean” Power produced: 225 gW 2035 Target for “Clean” power:960 gW
That’s a lot of power generation capacity that needs to be constructed in order to meet the 80 percent goal. Right now you can find vocal opposition to almost any kind of electrical power plant or transmission construction, from gas-fired plants to wind farms to large-scale solar developments. I understand that realism historically is not a feature of the State of the Union Address, but a lower goal with a firmer plan for implementing it would have been preferable. I was also disappointed that energy efficiency was not mentioned as a power source. Energy efficiency has helped reduce energy demand and will continue to do so.
We discussed “clean coal” and the mix of sources contributing to the US electricity generation capacity in the December 7 Energy Intelligence Update, available here.
More with Less
Our friends at dMASS have a new video out titled “Why Design Matters”. It’s a great introduction to the kind of thinking that could actually make clean power goals achievable. Check it out at www.dmass.net.
Winter Thoughts:
The past month has been cold and snowy here in Boston, which brings back memories of what it’s like to live in a real winter environment (defined as one where the snow lasts until April). The cold, and the various technologies for dealing with it, have brought me back to some fundamental truths about technology:
- Look at the new technology. My ski boots are so much lighter than what I had 35 years ago and my feet are so much warmer. I never knew! The same goes for your building. Look at what’s new and better
- Don’t necessarily throw out the old. My 50 year-old boiler works just fine and is reasonably efficient. Replacing it would be a 10 year payback, which doesn’t fly for me. Remember, just because “everybody” knows a technology is obsolete, sometimes an upgrade just doesn’t make sense
- It’s all about execution. Up here, the sign of a well-insulated roof is lots of snow and no icicles. If you have icicles, you don’t have a well-ventilated roof. My humble house has all the signs of a good insulation job. A nearby $1.5 million house is covered in icicles because somebody clearly didn’t do something right. Just because you have a new system (or building), it doesn’t mean anything unless it performs.
